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  • daviding 9:54 am on May 19, 2013 Permalink | Reply
    Tags: , , inquiring, inquiry,   

    Forms of inquiry in design and research | Erik Stolterman | May 17, 2013 | Transforming Grounds 

    Extending Churchman’s inquiring systems to design, by @estolter and Harold G Nelson with (i) the true, (ii) the ideal, and (iii) the real.

    … in the chapter “The Ultimate Particular” [...] we discuss three forms or designs of inquiry and action that humans can engage in. We suggest “… that design, as presented in this book, is based on a compound form of inquiry, composed of true, ideal, and real approaches to gaining knowledge.” It is possible to also make the case that research and science also in most cases consists of compound forms of these three. There is not simple and direct mapping between them even though it may be tempting to assume that.

    I will not here go into any detail about this, just copy two of the schemas we use in the chapter to show what kind of considerations are involved when anyone makes a decision on how to design a particular form of inquiry.

    In Figure 1.4 (below) we present a schema that lays out several aspects of inquiry and action and how they can be understood for each of the three forms of inquiry, that is, the real, the true and the ideal. This is a quite rich schema with dense concepts, but reading each line carefully gives insights about how different the three are, but also where they are somewhat overlapping. So, in making choices about what form of inquiry to choose in your research or design, a schema like this may help since it not only explains but also provides with concepts that can guide the understanding of purpose and measure of success. For instance, you can examine what your intention is, what you motivation is, what your preferred form of understanding is, etc. Given any choice also tells you what the measure fo success should be. So, if you are truly looking for inquiry for understanding (under ‘fundamentals’) that can lead to ‘enlightenment’ of some kind, it is not appropriate to see ‘facts’ to be part of the measure of success.

    Figure 1.4:  Designs of inquiry: the real, true and ideal

    However, choosing a research approach or a design approach is not a simple question of deciding which ‘design of inquiry and action’ to “use”. The richness and specifics of the particular situation, your purpose and intention leads to complex considerations regarding how all three forms can inform and enrich an inquiry. This is shown in Figure 1.5 below.

    Figure 1.5: Design inquiry: an emergent  compound

    Design or research is never a question of finding out what the correct or best existing approach is, instead it is a complex process of judgment that weighs all aspects in an attempt to reach an approach that makes sense, that is guided by intention, that has a purpose and is based on a clear understanding of what the measure of success is.

    Forms of inquiry in design and research | Erik Stolterman | May 17, 2013 | Transforming Grounds at http://transground.blogspot.com/2013/05/forms-of-inquiry-in-design-and-research.html.

     
    • David Hawk 11:52 am on May 19, 2013 Permalink | Reply

      Nice attempt to open reason up to that which perhaps is not and maybe ought not be overtly rational. As a by-product it illustrates how the subject area, whatever we come to label it, is overfilled with attempts to derive and place a rationale, i.e., someone’s idea, near the center of the thought process that is thinking about it. While always interesting this approach is seldom helpful to understanding that last.

      Key: I’m hesitant to embrace the categories of “real, true and ideal” as they are not mutually exclusive, well understood, or susceptible to ah ha experiences.

      The real? This has become a code word for someone being paranoid about the ambiguities of “reality”, especially those that emerged in science since the emergence of quantum physics. Most non-physics depictions since that time revert back to Newton or hide from the implications of modern physics by ignoring them and instead following the Wittgenstein approach to deciding whether a picture of a pipe is, or is not, a pipe. I would instead look to those who resist using the term “real” anywhere in their approach to understanding. Goethe is helpful, Lao Tzu is great, as is most of the translation work by Walter Kaufman.

      The true? Well, it has similar shortcomings. Religion put a few nails in its conceptual coffin a long time ago, then science added a few more (with some outstanding exceptions such as Heisenberg), and the judicial process running amok in a societal search for truth, via unintelligent lawyers doing unintelligent things, has pretty well buried the construct. It now is pretty well insulated it from any possibility of being helpful to meaning.

      The Ideal? The Platonic construct for explaining why humans are pretty well screwed by the limits of their mentality. Plato’s approach was consistent with the attitude of humans in the Old Testament, of the infamous Bible that 90% of politicians hold but can’t read. Ackoff, et.al., attempted to avoid this Platonic limitation by allowing “the ideal” to move, change and morph into whatever humans wanted it to be. This was to be done via his depiction of design. Ackoff claimed he took his thinking from Plato, but it was radically transformed via the taking. Plato’s approach was fundamentally different to Ackoff. I tend to be attracted to it, and drop design from the process. For Plato, that the ideal simply is, and probably does not change, but even if it changes, humans can’t know the change because “the ideal is the reality behind appearances that humans cannot access.” Ackoff side-stepped that detail, but at a cost. I would be careful of the ideal as a construct for design.

      Not sure if this helps, probably not. From my time with Ackoff and Churchman, it seemed that Churchman was quite thoughtful about planning, and Ackoff has a similar strength with design. Each ran into limitations when they went into the alternative area; e.g., Ackoff’s “On Purposeful Systems,” and “Churchman’s “Design of Inquiring Systems.” Ackoff, perhaps because of his architectural background, felt pretty secure in the three-dimensional world, and showed it, but was uneasy in the fourth. Chuchman, perhaps because of his pessimism about the human condition, easily occupied the fourth dimension but always kept his reservations about the human potentiality for good from the first three dimensions.

      Just some thoughts.

    • lezlie1 12:37 pm on May 20, 2013 Permalink | Reply

      Fascinating. I have been thinking along these lines in designing an inquiry into a subject in popular culture that is of interest to me. I particularly like how it incorporates the “ideal” – something I have tried to do in formulating a theoretical underpinning for art-informed inquiry as well. thanks for posting!

  • daviding 9:34 am on May 1, 2013 Permalink | Reply
    Tags: badges, credentials, resume, t-shaped   

    Ditch the resume and pick up a badge, they’re not just for Boy Scouts | Brent Herbert-Copley | May 1, 2013 | The Globe and Mail 

    If credibility of universities in credentialing declines, can alternative institutions such as badging recognize skills and knowledge in broader T-shaped people?

    Both students and postsecondary institutions are increasingly embracing the ideal of the “T-shaped” graduate, who combines deep “vertical” knowledge in a particular domain with a broad set of “horizontal” skills: teamwork, communications, facility with data and technology, an appreciation of diverse cultures, advanced literacy skills, and so on.

    This kind of shift is readily visible on campuses across the country. [....]

    The trick, however, is how to recognize and validate the skills and abilities that emerge from these diverse learning experiences. How can students demonstrate the value-added from extra activities? And how can employers separate the wheat from the chaff if grade-point averages alone don’t tell them what they need to know?

    Traditionally, of course, students have relied on the resume to describe their skills, profiling work and other experience that they hope will set them apart from the pack. But the resume is a distinctly analog tool in our digital age – a flat file in an era of linked data sets. While it’s still an indispensable calling card, it doesn’t allow students to present the richness of their experiences or draw attention to concrete products. And because it lacks external validation, it’s inevitably subject to doubt – even more so as the diversity of student experience broadens. Was that trip to southeast Asia a vital learning experience? What kinds of skills really emerged from that summer leadership program? Did that volunteer internship with a local not-for-profit provide a meaningful foray into independent research and analysis?

    Enter the “co-curricular transcript,” which allows postsecondary institutions to recognize student learning beyond the classroom – everything from involvement in student government and varsity sports, to international exchanges or internships. An increasing number of institutions now provide these alongside academic records, giving students and prospective employers an officially-sanctioned record of achievement beyond just courses and GPAs. It’s a significant advance, but still limited in the story it can tell. A list of co-curricular activities can’t capture the nuance of individual students’ experiences, and given the complexity of assessing learning outcomes, the transcripts necessarily focus on inputs – numbers of seminars, teams, or hours spent on particular activities.

    There is another, complementary approach, and interestingly it’s one that has its roots in young people’s own increasingly digital world. Thinkers like Cathy Davidson of Duke University have drawn inspiration from the world of on-line gaming, where communities of gamers award digital “badges” to recognize particular achievements by players. Davidson and others in the Humanities, Arts, Science and Technology Advanced Collaboratory (HASTAC – pronounced “haystack” – which held its annual conference at York University in Toronto last week) have been experimenting with the use of similar “badges” to recognize learning experiences and outcomes, both for students and for adult learners.

    The beauty of the model is the way it democratizes credentialing. Skills and experiences are validated – but that validation involves a diversity of expert groups, institutions and communities, mirroring the kind of diverse learning environment students are embracing. And because the model is inherently digital, it holds out the promise of a rich, multilayered record of results and achievements, with links to video, audio and text resources.

    Ditch the resume and pick up a badge, they’re not just for Boy Scouts | Brent Herbert-Copley | May 1, 2013 | The Globe and Mail at http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/education/ditch-the-resume-and-pick-up-a-badge-theyre-not-just-for-boy-scouts/article11639205.

    Ditch the resume and pick up a badge, they're not just for Boy Scouts - The Globe and Mail

     
  • daviding 1:08 pm on April 29, 2013 Permalink | Reply  

    At #ibmimpact, Mike Rhodin says big data is more than volume, have to deal with variety, veracity and velocity.

    Deterministic programming can’t handle big data, have to use probablistic programming

     
  • daviding 6:54 pm on April 28, 2013 Permalink | Reply  

    The Future of Intelligent Middleware, IBM Research at Impact 2013 Conference

    Contextual analytics
    Continuous insight
    Demos
    Key technical problems: unstructured, unstructured, semi-structured; have been working on scale OR performance, not both, which will happen in a clustered environment

    Why is contextual analytics important?
    An urgent need to understand information, particularly asynchronous ones

    Scenario: financial company with transactional credit card swipes, want to know as fraudulent or not
    Fraud detection could be on scoring, but could have gang using card quickly over a short period of time
    Scenario: Homeland security
    Scenario: In-store video analytics
    Scenario: Healthcare, sensors on patient

    Want improved time to decision-making
    Think of Continuous Insight as a Platform, with an engine that could scale up

    This is an application server redux: not just three tier, now want transactions in memory not as a single JVM, but as in memory clustered
    Challenge is analytics across JVMs
    Would use MapReduce and Hadoop, except those are for scaling up, not in a cluster

    Today, can have sales pipeline management, sales exec wants to see SmartSeller with Sales Challenge Alerts

    Demo trains with hidden Markov Model

    Started project on scale out computation, previously funded by DARPA, open source language called X10, for place-centric, asynchronous computing
    Generates both C++ and Java
    Will have programmer deal with place and asynchrony
    Don’t have to code in X10, have a global programming model above that

    Next steps to make this work: what is a good way to provide an analytics language at scale?

     
  • daviding 5:57 pm on April 28, 2013 Permalink | Reply
    Tags: cloud, polyglot, software defined environments   

    2013/04/28 15:00 Tamar Eilam, Gosia Steinder, Seetharami Seelam (IBM Research), “Future Clouds: Software Defined Environments and Polyglot” 

    IBM Research (Tamar Eilam, Gosia Steinder, Seetharami Seelam, Yuqing Gao), IBM Impact Conference, Las Vegas, Nevada

    This digest was created in real-time during the meeting, based on the speaker’s presentation(s) and comments from the audience. The content should not be viewed as an official transcript of the meeting, but only as an interpretation by a single individual. Lapses, grammatical errors, and typing mistakes may not have been corrected. Questions about content should be directed to the originator. The digest has been made available for purposes of scholarship, posted by David Ing.

    Following the GTO session by Steve Abrams, in the first track that IBM Research has run at the Impact conference


    Polyglot:  allows you to run different programming models in the same runtime

    Two trends that are motivating this work

    1. Evolution of workloads:

    • Traditional was few, stable and known workloads, configured manually once to run; then required manual intervention to change
    • Current is now diverse workloads (mobile, analytic), dynamic requirements, may benefit by special hardware, can have different components that require different configuration, have APIs that don’t give configuration of the hardware, can run in pools but not cross pools
    • Future, with cloud, would like to see more flexibility to configure hardware, but can’t have manual and slow, would like dynamic automatic composition of heterogenous systems

    2. Other trend is bottom-up, software design of architecture

    • Decision logic buried inside switches is being moved out
    • Software controlling networks in a flexible way
    • A way to program the infrastructure in code
    • Emergence of standards:  OpenStack, to define in a uniform way

    Goal: How to leverage Software Defined Infrastructure for both agility and optimization

    • Agility to respond to changing business needs: changing the structure of the workload (e.g. from big data to more security, as changes in middleware and hardware
    • Optimization:  changes in hardware, or making best use of hardware you have in place, non-functional constraints

    Software Defined Environment

    • Hardware at bottom
    • Then resource abstraction
    • Agile Workload Development Services that do Workload Orchestration and Optimization
    • Then have Workload Abstraction as Transactional, Web, etc.

    Layers:

    • Want to enable many-to-many mappings, due to life cycle
    • Service may evolve in the cloud:  initially want to get to end user quickly, the requirements evolve, and will want to scale
    • Software patterns mapped to infrastructure patterns

    “Desired State” Based Management

    • IBM pioneers and champions TOSCA(with OASIS) as an open standard to represent all parts of the workload

    How to define the work cloud?  Then once you have the description, how do you optimize?

    In IBM Research, developed Weaver, a Domain Specific Language

    DevOPS:  don’t design the application, and throw it over the wall, to find that don’t know what’s wrong

    • Get teams to work from inception, through build and deploy
    • Weaver is the basis of such a project

    Weaver has three parts to collaborate

    • Infrastructure topology:  e.g. web server, Hadoop
    • Application topology:  application-specific properties
    • Environment topology (that maps the two together)

    Have validators and rules

    • Used in the base of the IBM SmartCloud product

    [Gosia]

    Workload orchestration and optimization

    • Think of this like configuring Java virtual machines
    • Want to include computer, storage and networking requirements
    • Desired state is what you want to provision
    • Have to be able to provide diagnostics, if something breaks

    Workloads are complex wirings, embodying requirements

    [Seetharami]

    Polyglot

    In the future of the cloud, have discussed the infrastructure

    Will now talk about what languages that programmers will use, which implies challenges for infrastructure

    Java has ruled enterprise application space for 15 years, but some erosion, in terms of new applications

    Middleware platforms are changing in cloud centric era

    • Cloud Middleware (PaaS) market is sprawling:  a few vendors provide limited support for multiple languages e.g. AppFog, Heroku, Azure, CloudFoundry

    So the cloud middleware (PaaS) will be an integrated polyglot

    What does a polyglot application look like?

    • Web UI (HTML5/Javascript) with web app (node.js) and enterprise logic (Java)
    • Then add on PHP applications (e.g. Yelp, Twitter)

    Top languages on Github:  Javascript, Ruby, Python, Java, Shell, PHP

    Since Javascript is so popular, where is it being used in cloud-centric runtimes?

    • IBM Cast Iron, IBM Worklight, IBM BPM products

    Research will be the foundation for the IBM next generatoin (polyglot) cloud application platform

    • Initially will target node.js applications
    • Want to build a language-agnostic platform with tight interplay of services and capabilities
     
  • daviding 4:52 pm on April 28, 2013 Permalink | Reply
    Tags: ibm, impact, mobile first, research   

    2013/04/28 13:30 Gabi Zedik (IBM Research), “Mobile First: Future Directions in Mobile Development and Runtimes” 

    IBM Impact Conference, Las Vegas, Nevada

    This digest was created in real-time during the meeting, based on the speaker’s presentation(s) and comments from the audience. The content should not be viewed as an official transcript of the meeting, but only as an interpretation by a single individual. Lapses, grammatical errors, and typing mistakes may not have been corrected. Questions about content should be directed to the originator. The digest has been made available for purposes of scholarship, posted by David Ing.

    Following the GTO session by Steve Abrams, in the first track that IBM Research has run at the Impact conference


    Mobile First isn’t just a name, it’s a way of thinking of mobile

    Mobile has GPS, personalized

    Unlike other technologies where think about processes first, have to put the person in the centre

    New consumption patterns

    • Omnichannel:  physical, mobile,social, video and web
    • Context fusion: apps used to perform an single task, based on context (roe, mobile)
    • App-centric
    • Activity burst
    • Apps chained

    Re-imaging businesses

    • Radical simplification: core objective, enable in one or two interactions, e.g. Instagram, Bump
    • Extreme personalization
    • Participative behavior
    • World-as-an-interface
    • Zero barrier to entry

    Mobile First has disruptive impact on IT delivery infrastructure

    • “Systems of engagement”:  read about these on web
      • Engagement capabilities
      • Scalable delivery infrastructure
    • “Systems of record” are legacy systems

    Challenge:  data used to live on the system of record, life was easy, would access from a fat client or browser

    • For mobile devices to work effectively, some of the data needs to move off systems of records, to be cached on the device in continuous client experience
    • Then need to synchronize data, make sure it’s secure

    Mobile First Delivery Middleware is different from Traditional Web App Server

    • Functional requirements
    • Programming model attributes
    • Run-time deployment and management attributes: heteorgeneity in middleware stacks, number of programming languages

    Emphasis on mobile developers, different from those in cloud

    • Need a higher level of abstraction, a layer above a cloud
    • Focus on building mobile application:  usability is important
    • Would like to configure a dashboard on server side, and access that
    • Care less about virtual machines, who started the service, they just want them there
    • Would like to avoid writing code on the server side (although sometimes do need to write)

    Mobile Enteprise Application Platform Solution (MEAP) 2011-2012

    • Familiar Worklight diagram

    Other companies more focused on mobile developers

    • Convergence: mobile enterprise platforms are converging with mobile infrastructure services

    IBM Mobile Runtime Platform (with Systems of Engagement)

    • Mobile Industry  Platform and App Services
    • Mobile Backend as a Service (MBaaS) — non-SQL, more JSON or SOAP, need a transformation
    • Foundational Services — different security models
    • Cloud runtimes and frameworks (PaaS Fabric)
    • Software Defined Environment

    Research Runtime and Industry Services

    Session 1169:  Space-Time Aware Services for the IBM Platform

    • Location is becoming central for what we do
    • Linking operational decision management becomes important
    • Link with uncertainty, work in a proactive event-driven way (so that if have situations, handle, or change)
    • Combine with visual analytics, to define investigative services

    Spatial extension to Websphere eXtreme Scale

    • Important on how to represent data, structure in an efficient way so don’t have to go across all of the servers

    Secure Mobile First Enterprise Data Services

    • Unlike a laptop that could be owned by an enterprise, mobile devices are much more exposed
    • Bringing device into enterprise, have to manage private and enterprise data, e.g. e-mail that requires authentication, and can’t be copied to the private side of the device

    Omnichannel:

    • Have many mobile devices
    • Vision, would like seamless way of moving across devices and across people
    • e.g. start on desktop, them move to device on car (without sending it by e-mail) to start in the same point
    • Ability to synchronize across applications, across operating systems, across users, in a seamless experience
    • Challenge:  want to share across devices, operating systems, applications
    • For an application doing it across devices

    Scalable enterprise mobile messaging service

    • A lot happens in RESTful APIs
    • Sometimes using messaging, delivering system to system with certain throughputs
    • Sometimes pub-sub mechanisms
    • MessagingSight to handle so many devices at throughput required

    Want agility from development point of view

    • Looking at how to simply:  Rapdi App Development of Data-Centric Mobile Enterprise Apps, session 1211

    Research Development Lifecycle Tools as a Service

    • Testing
    • Application security and certificatoin
    • NitroGen:  Rapid LOB app constructoin
    • Usability and accessibility
    • DevOPS:  delivered in an Enterprise App store

    Mobile challenges and accessibility support are more important in devices, e.g. could have light outside, can’t hear in a noisy environment

    Research projects:

    • Smarter mobile commerce:  customer context –> omnichannel interaction –> authentication and payment
    • Context inference engine
    • Presence zones, enabling in-store personalized services
    • ARISTO:  Actionable, personally tailored knowledge ad the decision point, e.g. augmented reality application that could sort, compare prices, filter out (as opposed to calling your wife)
    • Smarter mobility:  e.g. transportation, logistics

    In Brazil lab:

    • Smart Board
    • Citizen Sensor: reporting on city problems when they encounter them
    • City Companion: helping tourists, the blind
     
  • daviding 3:33 pm on April 28, 2013 Permalink | Reply  

    IBM GTO 2013 

    At #ibmimpact @srabrams on IBM Global Technology Outlook preceding 3 in-depth sessions.

    Mega Trends:
    A. Growing scale / lower barrier of entry (users, transactions, computations, data);
    B. Increasing complexity / yet more consumable (data and data management, workloads, discovering insights, interaction);
    C. Fast pace;
    D. Contextual overload.

    Major Waves of Technology.
    Back office computing,
    Client-server,
    World wide web,
    Confluence of social, mobile, cloud, big data / analytics

    Rapidly evolving Infrastructure
    1. Mobile First
    2. Scalable Services Ecosystem
    3. Software Defined Environments
    The Future of Big Data and Analytics
    4. Multimedia and Visual Analytics
    5. Contextual Enterprise
    6. Personalized Education

    1. Mobile First as reimagining business around constantly connected employees and customers
    Trend: smartphone adoption
    Opportunity: change business
    Challenge: differentiation
    Mobile first is NOT “Mobile also”
    New design patterns: continuous client engagement, scalable delivery infrastructure, engagement services

    2. Scalable Services Ecosystem
    Trend: APIs as a service, make accessible to others, new business models
    Like evolution of SOA, companies would deal with each other, but mostly used on intranet
    Now, potential emphasizes Internet
    See with born-on-the-web companies
    Increasing number of new APIs registered per day
    Used to have traditional infrastructure, then cloud disrupting IT consumption model
    Example: telcos opening up core payment capabilities to capture value in the online payment market

    3. Software Defined Environments
    Trend: Enterprise cloud adoption is accelerating
    Opportunity: Business leadership in cloud
    Challenge: Urgency for building open ecosystems
    Cloud infrastructure as programmable: workload abstraction; resource abstraction (s d compute, s d storage, s d network); mapping to resource; continuous optimization

    4. Multimedia and Visual Analytics
    On Internet, 75% is audio and video
    Trend: demand for video analytics
    Opportunity: insights
    Challenge: difficult technical domains, massive scale real-time computing and deep semantic understanding
    Massive multimedia is biggest data wave
    How to visualize uncertainty

    5 Contextual Enterprise
    Carrying around smartphone, could know where I am, when, with what friends
    Opportunity: making life better
    Example: social service provider to find right programs for medicare, etc., could combine contextual information, so that person with prescription has right support structure

    6. Personalized Education
    Educational market is changing, MOOCs for free or fee
    Will have some interesting longitudinal studies at tail end of traditional education, and new web education

     
  • daviding 2:17 pm on April 28, 2013 Permalink | Reply  

    At #ibmimpact, @mwieck describes a new kind of system with 3 systems of interaction: 1 systems of engagement (e.g. mobile); 2 systems of record; and 3 the Internet of things; all tied together in the cloud

     
  • daviding 10:19 am on April 25, 2013 Permalink | Reply
    Tags: beveridge, employment, job openings, long-term, unemployment   

    The Terrifying Reality of Long-Term Unemployment | Matthew O’Brien | April 13, 2013 | The Atlantic 

    Employers can tap a greater pool of potential by considering the long-term unemployed over people who churn through jobs.  What’s the catch? Employers should be realistic that training is an investment in human capital, that can pay off in better employee retention.

    There are two labor markets nowadays. There’s the market for people who have been out of work for less than six months, and the market for people who have been out of work longer. The former is working pretty normally, and the latter is horribly dysfunctional. That was the conclusion of recent research I highlighted a few months ago by Rand Ghayad, a visiting scholar at the Boston Fed and a PhD candidate in economics at Northeastern University, and William Dickens, a professor of economics at Northeastern University, that looked at Beveridge curves for different ages, industries, and education levels to see who the recovery is leaving behind.

    Okay, so what is a Beveridge curve? Well, it just shows the relationship between job openings and unemployment. There should be a pretty stable relationship between the two, assuming the labor market isn’t broken. The more openings there are, the less unemployment there should be. If that isn’t true, if the Beveridge curve “shifts up” as more openings don’t translate into less unemployment, then it might be a sign of “structural” unemployment. That is, the unemployed just might not have the right skills. Now, what Ghayad and Dickens found is that the Beveridge curves look normal across all ages, industries, and education levels, as long as you haven’t been out of work for more than six months. But the curves shift up for everybody if you’ve been unemployed longer than six months. In other words, it doesn’t matter whether you’re young or old, a blue-collar or white-collar worker, or a high school or college grad; all that matters is how long you’ve been out of work.

    Help Wanted — If You’ve Been Out of Work for Less than Six Months

    But just how bad is it for the long-term unemployed? Ghayad ran a follow-up field experiment to find out. In a new working paper, he sent out 4800 fictitious resumes to 600 job openings, with 3600 of them for fake unemployed people. Among those 3600, he varied how long they’d been out of work, how often they’d switched jobs, and whether they had any industry experience. Everything else was kept constant. The mocked-up resumes were all male, all had randomly-selected (and racially ambiguous) names, and all had similar education backgrounds. The question was which of them would get callbacks.

    It turns out long-term unemployment is much scarier than you could possibly imagine.

    The results are equal parts unsurprising and terrifying. Employers prefer applicants who haven’t been out of work for very long, applicants who have industry experience, and applicants who haven’t moved between jobs that much. But how long you’ve been out of work trumps those other factors. As you can see in the chart below from Ghayad’s paper, people with relevant experience (red) who had been out of work for six months or longer got called back less than people without relevant experience (blue) who’d been out of work shorter.

    The Terrifying Reality of Long-Term Unemployment - Matthew O'Brien - The Atlantic

    Look at that again. As long as you’ve been out of work for less than six months, you can get called back even if you don’t have experience. But after you’ve been out of work for six months, it doesn’t matter what experience you have. Quite literally. There’s only a 2.12 percentage point difference in callback rates for the long-term unemployed with or without industry experience. That’s compared to a 7.13 and 8.95 percentage point difference for the short-and-medium-term unemployed. This is what screening out the long-term unemployed looks like. In other words, the first thing employers look at is how long you’ve been out of work, and that’s the only thing they look at if it’s been six months or longer.

    This penalty for long-term unemployment is unlike any other. As you can see in the chart below, job churn is another red flag for employers, but not nearly to the same extent. Applicants who’d gone through five to six jobs but had relevant experience were still more likely to get called back than those who’d gone through three to four jobs but didn’t. And they had about as good a chance as those who’d only held one or two jobs but weren’t experienced. In other words, there is no job-switching cliff like there is an unemployment cliff.

    The Terrifying Reality of Long-Term Unemployment - Matthew O'Brien - The Atlantic
    Long-term unemployment is a terrifying trap. Once you’ve been out of work for six months, there’s little you can do to find work. Employers put you at the back of the jobs line, regardless of how strong the rest of your resume is. After all, they usually don’t even look at it.

    The Terrifying Reality of Long-Term Unemployment | Matthew O’Brien | April 13, 2013 | The Atlantic at http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/04/the-terrifying-reality-of-longterm-unemployment/274957/.

    Rand Ghayad and William Dickens, “What Can We Learn by Disaggregating the Unemployment-Vacancy Relationship?”, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Public Policy Brief No. 12-3, at http://www.bos.frb.org/economic/ppb/2012/ppb123.htm

     
  • daviding 10:27 am on April 24, 2013 Permalink | Reply
    Tags: knowledge, polanyi oakeshott, practical, technical   

    The Practical University | David Brooks | April 4, 2013 | NYTimes.com 

    Can online education serve both practical knowledge and technical knowledge? David Brooks cites Michael Oakeshott, which leads to positioning in comparison to Michael Polanyi.

    What is a university for? [....]

    My own stab at an answer would be that universities are places where young people acquire two sorts of knowledge, what the philosopher Michael Oakeshott called technical knowledge and practical knowledge. Technical knowledge is the sort of knowledge you need to understand a task — the statistical knowledge you need to understand what market researchers do, the biological knowledge you need to grasp the basics of what nurses do.

    Technical knowledge is like the recipes in a cookbook. It is formulas telling you roughly what is to be done. It is reducible to rules and directions. It’s the sort of knowledge that can be captured in lectures and bullet points and memorized by rote.

    Right now, online and hybrid offerings seem to be as good as standard lectures at transmitting this kind of knowledge, and, in the years ahead, they are bound to get better — more imaginatively curated, more interactive and with better assessments.

    The problem is that as online education becomes more pervasive, universities can no longer primarily be in the business of transmitting technical knowledge. Online offerings from distant, star professors will just be too efficient. As Ben Nelson of Minerva University points out, a school cannot charge students $40,000 and then turn around and offer them online courses that they can get free or nearly free. That business model simply does not work. There will be no such thing as a MOOC university.

    Nelson believes that universities will end up effectively telling students: “Take the following online courses over the summer or over a certain period, and then, when you’re done, you will come to campus and that’s when our job will begin.” If Nelson is right, then universities in the future will spend much less time transmitting technical knowledge and much more time transmitting practical knowledge.

    Practical knowledge is not about what you do, but how you do it. It is the wisdom a great chef possesses that cannot be found in recipe books. Practical knowledge is not the sort of knowledge that can be taught and memorized; it can only be imparted and absorbed. It is not reducible to rules; it only exists in practice.

    Now I could give you a theory about how universities can transmit this sort of practical moral wisdom, but let’s save that. Let’s focus on practical wisdom in the modern workplace.

    Think about Sheryl Sandberg’s recent book, “Lean In.” Put aside the debate about the challenges facing women in society. Focus on the tasks she describes as being important for anybody who wants to rise in this economy: the ability to be assertive in a meeting; to disagree pleasantly; to know when to interrupt and when not to; to understand the flow of discussion and how to change people’s minds; to attract mentors; to understand situations; to discern what can change and what can’t.

    These skills are practical knowledge. Anybody who works in a modern office knows that they are surprisingly rare. But students can learn these skills at a university, through student activities, through the living examples of their professors and also in seminars.

    Nelson’s venture, Minerva, uses technology to double down on seminars. Minerva is a well-financed, audacious effort to use technological advances to create an elite university at a much lower cost. I don’t know if Minerva will work or not, but Nelson is surely right to focus on the marriage of technology and seminars.

    The problem with the current seminars is that it’s really hard to know what anybody gets out of them. The conversations might be lively, but they flow by so fast you feel as if you’re missing important points and exchanges.

    The goal should be to use technology to take a free-form seminar and turn it into a deliberate seminar (I’m borrowing Anders Ericsson’s definition of deliberate practice). Seminars could be recorded with video-cameras, and exchanges could be reviewed and analyzed to pick apart how a disagreement was handled and how a debate was conducted. Episodes in one seminar could be replayed for another. Students could be assessed, and their seminar skills could be tracked over time.

    So far, most of the talk about online education has been on technology and lectures, but the important challenge is technology and seminars. So far, the discussion is mostly about technical knowledge, but the future of the universities is in practical knowledge.

    Excerpted from The Practical University | David Brooks | April 4, 2013 | NYTimes.com http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/05/opinion/Brooks-The-Practical-University.html?_r=1&.

    The Practical University - NYTimes.com

    Some references that I’ve downloaded to read on a plane ride:

     
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