2015/07/08 09:05 Stefan Pauliuk, “Prospective Models of Society’s Future Metabolism”, ISIE, U. Surrey

University of Surrey, Guildford, July 7-10, 2015

This digest was created in real-time during the meeting, based on the speaker’s presentation(s) and comments from the audience. The content should not be viewed as an official transcript of the meeting, but only as an interpretation by a single individual. Lapses, grammatical errors, and typing mistakes may not have been corrected. Questions about content should be directed to the originator. The digest has been made available for purposes of scholarship by David Ing.

Plenary talks for ISIE 2015 are by contributors to an open access volume, Taking Stock of Industrial Ecology, available online as open access e-book from Springer in fall 2015.  See the table of contents and the Springer book description.


Introduction by Jacquetta Lee, Director of the Practitioner Doctorate Programme in Sustainability, U. Surrey

Stefan Pauliuk is post-doctoral fellow, Industrial Ecology Programme, NTNU

DI_20150708 032520 ISIE plenary StefanPauliuk

[Stefan Pauliuk]

Need to transform

  • What do we need to scale up, moving from unsustainable to more sustainable?

Adopt a transformation approach, but need to model a different scale

  • Combining three approachs is called prospective (forward-looking) assessment of transformation strategies

DI_20150708 030913 ISIE plenary StefanPauliuk SystemsApproach

Prospective modeling adds modeling principles rather than specific methods

DI_20150708 030956 ISIE plenary StefanPauliuk ProspectiveModellingFutureMetabolism

Trace back to Dan Muller [Department of Energy and Process Engineering, NTNU]

  • Trace concrete and timber

Then Hatayama, Daigo, Matsuno, Adachi (2010)

DI_20150708 031141 ISIE plenary StefanPauliuk Milford

Updated to Milford, Pauliuk, 2014

  • Scale up model to global scale, find mitigation potential

Similar work by Liu, Band and Muller 2012 on aluminum, can go down to alloy

  • Lovik Moderesi and Muller 2014

Eishkaki and Graedel 2013 JCP, looking at critical materials, may find some supply constraints

Busch, Steinberger Dawson 2014: conflict between low carbon and circular economy

Northey, Mohr, Mudd 2014 RCT:  How could existing copper resources be mined in the future

I/O-based techniques back to Leontieff and Duchin 1986 Future Impact of Automation

  • De Konging Huppes Tukker 2015

Supply curve approach:  Nakamura, Kondo, Kagawa 2014 MaTrace

LCA:  Hertwich, Gibon, Bouman 2015 PNAS:  Take energy supply from scenarios and improvements, what is the impact in future?

Prospective modelling in IE builds on MFA I/O and attributional LCA

  • Differentiate between LCA and prospective modeling
  • Expectations high, so believe the direction could be scenario analysis to model transformation of society’s metabolism is suitable

Two scopes:  with IE, and beyond

  • Assess bundles of mitigation and adaptation strategies
  • Trend:  convergence of methods, more consistent data, better reproducibility of results

DI_20150708 032048 ISIE plenary StefanPauliuk connect

Connect to other fields?

  • IE is considered small, need to link to energy system models, climate models, prospective economic models, land use and coverage models
  • Integrated assessment modelling

DI_20150708 032152 ISIE plenary StefanPauliuk prospective IE IAMs