2015/07/11 09:30 Chris Kennedy, “The Plumbing for a New Industrial Ecology”, ISIE SIEYP, U. Surrey

Talk by Chris Kennedy, U. of Toronto, at the “ISIE Symposium on Industrial Ecology for Young Professionals“, 8th Biennial Conference of the International Society for Industrial Ecology, University of Surrey, Guildford, July 11, 2015

This digest was created in real-time during the meeting, based on the speaker’s presentation(s) and comments from the audience. The content should not be viewed as an official transcript of the meeting, but only as an interpretation by a single individual. Lapses, grammatical errors, and typing mistakes may not have been corrected. Questions about content should be directed to the originator. The digest has been made available for purposes of scholarship by David Ing.

[Moderated by Jonathan Krones, from MIT Engineering Systems Division]

Welcome

  • ISIE meeting was taking stock
  • SIEYP is looking forward, where IE is going next

Chris Kennedy is Professor, Civil Engineering at the U. of Toronto, and President of the International Society for Industrial Ecology

DI_20150711 035447 SIEYP ChrisKennedy

[Chris Kennedy]

Some work that is incomplete

  • Focused in infrastructure
  • Overlaps other parts of IE

Title part of idea from OECD

  • A new industrial field
  • Ecosystem that goes around industry

Start with Kalundborg, Denmark

  • Previous conference talks focused on oil refinery and electric power stations
  • But don’t want to focus there, because the future may not be around oil and electric

DI_20150711 034646 SIEYP ChrisKennedy GlobalEnergyUse

Work at different scales

  • Map of global energy system by Cullen and Allwood
  • Want final servies (e.g. transport), but we don’t like the old energy sources
  • Conversion devices will have to change
  • Leaders setting up from there

Stefan Pauliuk presentation:

  • Link infrastructure systems to their material use
  • Others working on global input-output models
  • Ming working on Infrastructure Ecology, could fit in here, too

DI_20150711 034727 SIEYP ChrisKennedy CarbonEmissionsOfInfrastructureDev

Kennedy and Corfee-Morlot 2012 OECD work done as an economist, learning from industrial ecology over the year

  • From an economic perspective, how could we achieve a low carbon economy?
  • If we had the policies to promote energy efficiencies, then we no longer need to invest in the infrastructure that carries oil and natural gas
  • If decrease investment in oil and natural gas, the capital we free up needs to go into low carbon electricity generation, which makes vehicles low carbon as well
  • Result:  decrease demand for coal and oil, then don’t need to move coal and oil
  • Then can have some big infrastructure savings, particularly in countries that don’t already have them
  • Rail and ports are big infrastructure
  • Costing, enough to get working paper with OECD

DI_20150711 035227 SIEYP ChrisKennedy ChinasGreenInvestmentNeeds

Now working with OECD and government of China, about financing green investment in China

  • Working on Chapter 2, with colleague in Chinese university
  • (Numbers wrong, keep changing)
  • Chinese government really understands changing to an ecological civilization
  • Factor of 10 beyond U.S. superfund to clean up
  • Chart only shows to 2020, report will go beyond that
  • What’s missing is a trillion dollars for an industry treatment of waste coming out of solid, gaseous, liquid waste
  • This is just the investment in green stuff
  • Haven’t yet got data on savings in investment they won’t do

DI_20150711 035429 SIEYP ChrisKennedy ChinasWindPower MatthewsTan

Matthew and Tan 2014:  China’s Wind Power

  • Getting steeper and steeper

DI_20150711 035517 SIEYP ChrisKennedy ERI IRENA High Renewables

ERI & IRENA High Renewals Scenarios

  • Wind and solar means by 2050, oil and coal is reduced by 75%
  • Plan to do high renewalbles in China

DI_20150711 035612 SIEYP ChrisKennedy China2050HighRenewable

China’s primary energy consumption, ERI 2015

  • Coal peaks in 2020, if it already hasn’t
  • Is this possible thermodynamically, economically, socially?

DI_20150711 035636 SIEYP ChrisKennedy ChinasPrimaryEnergyConsumption

Typical day in China:  power from solar goes up during the day

Costs:  Wind power is now competitive with coal power in China

  • Coal costs would go up with infrastructure and environmental costs

Readapted Kennedy and Corfee-Morlot 2012, 2013 for China

  • Could poke holes in this
  • Link between coal and railway, in the context of a country that is still growing
  • China is impressive
  • UK to U.S. to China from industrial revolution scale goes up
  • China already has more high-speed rail than others

China has a Medium to Long-term Railway Network Plan, in the context  of China 2050 High Renewal Energy Penetration Scneario and Roadmap Study (2015)

  • 112,000 to 250,000km in 2050
  • But 50% of rail traffic is coal
  • What if coal demand goes down 75%

DI_20150711 035741 SIEYP ChrisKennedy HourlyDispatchOfNationalwidePowerGeneration

The amount of iron ore required to build 200km of dedicated freight ral lines is equivalent to 2000GW of onshore wind turbines

  • That’s close to the envisaged wind power for 2050
  • Want someone to redo the China railway plan, taking account of industrial ecology
  • Could then do this for India, for the U.S.

DI_20150711 035809 SIEYP ChrisKennedy PowerCostsUnderERI

The go back to industrial symbiosis

DI_20150711 035851 SIEYP ChrisKennedy InteractionsBetweenInfrastructureSectors

[Questions]

Save steel by not building rails, but what about other energy storage technologies?

  • That’s for you to research
  • To be done
  • Fast high speed rail is sustainable, supported by electricity
  • Coal and steam engines are intensive

What about the U.S.?

  • As 4 to 5 years ago, 45% of rail tonnage is coal
  • It’s mature, shrinking rather than growing